BSDA-Project Bayesian Data Analysis using Stan Solved

Your project should be a Bayesian Data Analysis using Stan (you can use brms or rstanarm if you like. Although, this is easier and will be considered when grading, i.e. it will be harder to get a VG in the mini-project.

Real data should be used (see below for details).

At least two di erent models should be estimated and compared.

For PhD students: You can choose to make a small project related to your research interest instead. Although, it should still be a 4 page paper output.

1.1           Suggested Reading/Video material
The project will be a small practical exercise in Bayesian data analysis. To get some inspiration, see the Stan YouTube channel [here] or the Stan User Guide [here]

1.2           Project Group and Expected Workload
It is possible to have only one student in a group, although this is not recommended. One student group will, in practice, mean additional work due to the requirements of the project.

The project is expected to take 40h per student in the group. Hence a 3 group project should be the equivalent of a 120h project.

1.3           Data Sets and Methods Recommendations
We recommend that you             nd a dataset you are interested in using yourself, ideally in a eld you      nd interesting. Feel free to discuss potential projects with the teacher.

If you have a hard time nding a dataset to use, there are a lot of available datasets (and problems) at:

The UCI Machine Learning repository: [here]

The machine learning competition site Kaggle: [here]

The following data sets should not be used in the project:

Titanic (R data set) mtcars (R data set)

1.4           Project Proposal
Students need to turn in a half-page project and data description by and get approval for the proposed project. The project proposal must include the following pieces.

The project proposal should include all the group members names!

Description of the problem/area/idea.

Description of the data, e.g. the number of observations, the number of groups (if you intend to use a hierarchical model), what is the dependent variable etc.

Describe the most basic model you will use/start from in math (using LaTeX equations).

To minimize the project work’s total workload, I suggest you see the proposal as a rst draft of Sections 1 and 2 of the project report (see below). Then you will already have written the rst part of your project report.

1.5           Project Report
The Project outcome is a report in the ICML paper format that can be found [here]. The ICML format is also available in overleaf here: [here]. We recommend using Overleaf for writing the report.

The paper should consist of between three and a half (3.5) and four (4) pages, excluding references and eventual appendices. Write the report as you would do in a real situation, i.e. do not refer to the paper as a "mini-project" or similar. The paper should include the following parts/sections:

1.    Title

The title should describe the problem and be like a real article title, i.e. don’t write "Mini-project:" or similar in the title.

2.    Abstract

3.    Introduction (roughly 0.5 page)

Description of the problem.

4.    Data (roughly 0.5 page)

Description of the data.

5.    Models (roughly 0.5 page)

Description of the models

Description of how the models were compared (LOO/WAIC)

6.    Results (roughly 1.5-2 pages) Results of the di erent models

Which model does seem to work the best, and why?

7.    Conclusions (roughly 0.5-1 pages)

Conclusions from the results.

Discussion of problems and potential improvements and other models

Additional requirements and hints for the report:

1.    All Figures using color should have a color-blind friendly color palette. See here and here.

2.    Before you turn in the project, do a language check with a tool such as Grammarly. A project will poor english (errors that would have been spotted with a tool such as Grammarly) will a ect your grade downwards.

3.    The           nal report should look like a research paper, i.e. try to avoid bullet list and get a good   ow in the text. Also do not refer to the report as a mini-project. See it as a real report (or short paper).

You should use correct reference systems. A tip is to use citet, citep, and bibtex. This will also simplify your future thesis work