• Every learner should submit his/her own homework solutions. However, you are allowed to discuss the homework with each other (in fact, I encourage you to form groups and/or use the forums) – but everyone must submit his/her own solution; you may not copy someone else’s solution.
• The homework will be peer-graded. In analytics modeling, there are often lots of different approaches that work well, and I want you to see not just your own, but also others.
• The homework grading scale reflects the fact that the primary purpose of homework is learning:
Rating
Meaning
Point value (out of 100)
4
All correct (perhaps except a few details) with a deeper solution than expected
100
3
Most or all correct
90
2
Not correct, but a reasonable attempt
75
1
Not correct, insufficient effort
50
0
Not submitted
0
Question 5.1
Using crime data from the file uscrime.txt (http://www.statsci.org/data/general/uscrime.txt, description at http://www.statsci.org/data/general/uscrime.html), test to see whether there are any outliers in the last column (number of crimes per 100,000 people). Use the grubbs.test function in the outliers package in R.
Question 6.1
Describe a situation or problem from your job, everyday life, current events, etc., for which a Change Detection model would be appropriate. Applying the CUSUM technique, how would you choose the critical value and the threshold?
Question 6.2
1. Using July through October daily-high-temperature data for Atlanta for 1996 through 2015, use a CUSUM approach to identify when unofficial summer ends (i.e., when the weather starts cooling off) each year. You can get the data that you need from the file temps.txt or online, for example at http://www.iweathernet.com/atlanta-weather-records or https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KFTY/2015/7/1/CustomHistory.html . You can use R if you’d like, but it’s straightforward enough that an Excel spreadsheet can easily do the job too.
2.
Use a CUSUM approach to make a judgment of whether Atlanta’s summer climate has gotten warmer in that time (and if so, when).
